Industry specific models

Eggs model – a detailed short to medium term forecasting model of the Australian market. This model, with input from industry surveys, has been used to project production and price outcomes for the next 12 to 18 months.

GMI – Global Meat Industry model, a multicountry, multicommodity, Armington style model of world meat industries built by the CIE to analyse in detail the prospects of the world meat industries over the next decade and beyond. This model identifies 26 regions and ten meat types. It has been used in over 30 major projects and continues to be used on a regular basis to assess the implications of various events on the meat industry. See the CIE report Global Beef Liberalisation: Magellan Project

Grains model – a model of Australian grains production, consumption and exports. The model covers five grains (or groups of grains): wheat, malting barley, other coarse grains, pulses and oil seeds. It distinguishes production by states with each state having a different production mix and supply responsiveness.

Sugar model – a detailed dynamic model of the world sugar industry covering bilateral trade flows, production and consumption for 24 regions and 6 sweetener types. This model is regularly used for both policy analysis (the effects of trade liberalisation) and price forecasting and risk analysis by commercial clients. See the CIE report Targets for OECD Sugar Market Liberalisation.

Banana model – an economic model of the world banana market built by the CIE to look at issues of EU market barriers. See the CIE report Bananas: Straightening out Bent Ideas on Trade as Aid.

Citrus model – an economic model of the citrus industry in Australia. It covers oranges, mandarins, navel and valencia. It explains production, consumption and trade for each commodity. Specific export destinations for each commodity are also modelled. It has a range of potential applications including identification of key determinants of profitability of the industry, analysis of the effects of changes in the domestic economy and world markets on the Australian citrus industry, and payoffs from R&D affecting various points in the value chain.